Cytomegalovirus (CMV) seroprevalence among women at childbearing age, maternal and congenital CMV infection: policy implications of a descriptive, retrospective, community-based study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal CMV infection during pregnancy, either primary or non-primary, may be associated with fetal infection and long-term sequelae. While guidelines recommend against it, screening for CMV in pregnant women is a prevalent clinical practice in Israel. Our aim is to provide updated, local, clinically relevant, epidemiological information about CMV seroprevalence among women at childbearing age, the incidence of maternal CMV infection during pregnancy and the prevalence of congenital CMV (cCMV), as well as to provide information about the yield of CMV serology testing. METHODS: We performed a descriptive, retrospective study of women at childbearing age who were members of Clalit Health Services in the district of Jerusalem and had at least one gestation during the study period (2013-2019). We utilized serial serology tests to determine CMV serostatus at baseline and at pre/periconception and identified temporal changes in CMV serostatus. We then conducted a sub-sample analysis integrating inpatient data on newborns of women who gave birth in a single large medical center. cCMV was defined as either positive urine CMV-PCR test in a sample collected during the first 3 weeks of life, neonatal diagnosis of cCMV in the medical records, or prescription of valganciclovir during the neonatal period. RESULTS: The study population Included 45,634 women with 84,110 associated gestational events. Initial CMV serostatus was positive in 89% women, with variation across different ethno-socioeconomic subgroups. Based on consecutive serology tests, the detected incidence rate of CMV infection was 2/1000 women follow-up years, among initially seropositive women, and 80/1000 women follow-up years, among initially seronegative women. CMV infection in pregnancy was identified among 0.2% of women who were seropositive at pre/periconception and among 10% of women who were seronegative. In a subsample, which included 31,191 associated gestational events, we identified 54 newborns with cCMV (1.9/1000 live births). The prevalence of cCMV among newborns of women who were seropositive at pre/periconception was lower than among newborns of women who were seronegative (2.1 vs. 7.1/1000). Frequent serology tests among women who were seronegative at pre/periconception detected most primary CMV infections in pregnancy that resulted in cCMV (21/24). However, among women who were seropositive, serology tests prior to birth detected none of the non-primary infections that resulted in cCMV (0/30). CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective community-based study among women of childbearing age characterized by multiparity and high seroprevalence of CMV, we find that consecutive CMV serology testing enabled to detect most primary CMV infections in pregnancy that led to cCMV in newborns but failed to detect non-primary CMV infections in pregnancy. Conducting CMV serology tests among seropositive women, despite guidelines' recommendations, has no clinical value, while it is costly and introduces further uncertainties and distress. We thus recommend against routine CMV serology testing among women who were seropositive in a prior serology test. We recommend CMV serology testing prior to pregnancy only among women known to be seronegative or women whose serology status is unknown.

Patterns of longitudinal medical treatment of pediatric patients ever-diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactive disorder: A community-based, retrospective, naturalistic study.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacological treatment for ADHD exhibits much variation. Longitudinal prescription-filling trajectories are interesting objects to explore. The goal of this study is to identify distinct patterns of longitudinal prescription filling among pediatric patients who were ever diagnosed with ADHD. METHODS: Longitudinal data of ADHD-specific prescription filling during 2010-2019 of children diagnosed with ADHD during 2000-2019 who were 4-17-years-old at the time of diagnosis was obtained. Clustering of prescription-filling vectors was performed using K-means. RESULTS: Analysis of 57,110 prescription vectors yields five distinct patterns: high intensity treatment, from early childhood to late teens (5.7%); moderate intensity, from early childhood to late teens (13.3%); high intensity, from late childhood to late teens (6.1%); moderate intensity, from late childhood to late teens (14.2%); and low intensity, sporadic treatment (60.7%). These patterns correspond with observed clinical presentations. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying longitudinal prescription-filling patterns substantiates and qualifies the variation in long-term efficacy of pharmacological treatment for ADHD in a treatment-as-usual community setting. Prescription-filling implies that symptoms are present, and that treatment is efficacious, as perceived by parents' and carers. Prolonged pharmacological treatment was perceived to have had a positive net value for 40% of the children, which under appropriate reservations, provides weak evidence of efficacy.

The association between hallway boarding in internal wards, readmission and mortality rates: a comparative, retrospective analysis, following a policy change.

BACKGROUND: Emergency department overcrowding is associated with adverse clinical outcomes and poor patients and staff experience. Full capacity protocols enabling hallway boarding in internal wards are instituted to relieve emergency room overcrowding. The effect of hallway boarding on the clinical outcomes of all inpatients in the internal wards has not been studied. Early in 2016, a decision to enable hallway boarding in the internal wing in our medical center came into effect, comprising an abrupt change to the medical center's policy. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of hallway boarding on patients who were hospitalized in the internal wards. METHODS: General linear regression analysis, based on administrative data about admissions of patients, from January 2013 through September 2019, is used to compare in-hospital mortality, 30-day readmission and 30-day mortality rates, of inpatients hospitalized in two internal departments in our medical center, before and after the policy change. RESULTS: Eight thousand five hundred eighty-three patients and 11,962 patients were admitted to internal departments A and B, before and after the policy change, respectively. Adjusted in-hospital mortality was lower after the policy change (OR 0.76, [CI, 0.65 to 0.90]), 30-day readmission was mildly higher (OR, 1.18 [CI, 1.00 to 1.40]) and no change in 30-day mortality was observed (OR 1.16 [CI, 0.88 to 1.53]). The results emanate from corresponding changes in department A. No apparent change was observed in the length of hospital stay in department A, while a shorter length of stay was observed in department B. CONCLUSION: Enabling inpatient boarding in our medical center, effectively, had increased bed capacity and generated an increase in the volume of patients. It was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and an increased 30-day readmission, without increasing 30-day mortality. Since this is an observational study, conducted in a single center, further research is necessary to confirm and qualify these observations.

Development and Validation of the Mucosal Inflammation Noninvasive Index For Pediatric Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Mucosal healing (MH) has become a goal of therapy for Crohn's disease (CD), but frequent endoscopies are not feasible. We aimed to develop and validate a non-invasive index to assess mucosal inflammation in children with CD. METHODS: We collected data from the multi-center prospective ImageKids study, in which children with CD underwent ileocolonoscopy with magnetic resonance enterography. We investigated the association of pediatric CD activity index (PCDAI) items and laboratory test results with the simple endoscopic score for CD (SESCD). We used these data in a blended mathematical judgmental clinimetric approach to develop a weighted categorized index to identify children with CD who have MH, which we called the MINI index. We validated the index using data from 3 independent patient cohorts. The derivation and validation cohorts included 154 and 168 children, respectively (age 14.1 ± 2.5 years and 14.2 ± 3.9 years), of whom 16% and 36% had MH (defined as SESCD<3). RESULTS: In multivariable models, the stooling item of the PCDAI, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and level of fecal calprotectin were associated with SESCD (all P < .05). We added data on level of C-reactive protein to develop the MINI index. MINI scores below 8 identified children with MH with 88% sensitivity and 85% specificity in the derivation cohort and with 84% sensitivity and 87% specificity in the validation cohorts. Ninety percent of the patients in the validation cohort with scores of 8 or more had active mucosal inflammation, yet 78% of patients with scores below 8 had MH. Scores below 6 increase the positive predictive value to 86%. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an index to non-invasively assess mucosal inflammation in children with CD. This index, identifies children with MH with high sensitivity and specificity. The added benefit of MINI over measurement of fecal calprotectin was small but significant, especially for patients with concentrations of fecal calprotectin from 100 to 599 µg/g. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01881490.

The number of acute cerebrovascular events in Israel: a forecast until 2040.

BACKGROUND: Acute cerebrovascular event is one of the leading causes of death in Israel and is the primary cause of neurological disability in adults. Although some evidence indicates that the incidence rate of acute cerebrovascular events in developed countries is stable or has been decreasing over the past decades, the number of events is expected to increase in these countries due to projected changes in size and composition of the population. The purpose of this study was to provide a forecast of the number of acute cerebrovascular events in Israel for the coming decades. METHODS: We used data from the National Stroke Registry at the Israel Center for Disease Control and data from the long-term population forecasts of the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. We generated forecasts of the annual number of acute cerebrovascular events based on the mean annual incidence rates during 2014-2016 within population subgroups defined by gender, age, and ethnicity, and on the projected population size of these subgroups for 2015-2040. The forecasts were generated for various assumptions as to trends in the incidence rate and for alternatives as to the projected population growth. RESULTS: Based on the intermediate population growth alternative, the annual number of acute cerebrovascular events is expected to increase from 18,400 to 38,500, 34,800 or 26,400 events, assuming constant annual incidence rates, decreasing annual incidence rates at a rate of 2% every 5 years, or decreasing annual incidence rates at a rate of 7.25% every 5 years, respectively. Whereas, presently, events affecting Arab patients account for 15% of acute cerebrovascular events and events affecting patients over 80 account for 33% of acute cerebrovascular events, by 2040 events affecting Arab patients will account for more than 21% of the events and events affecting patients over 80 will account for 42% of the events. CONCLUSIONS: In view of the expected increase in the number of acute cerebrovascular events and the changes in the demographic composition of adults suffering from such events, and in order to allow for optimal care and equity, it is imperative to evaluate the preparedness of care provision and the geographical deployment of treatment services in the short and long term.

Timing of antibiotic prophylaxis in cesarean section: retrospective, difference-in-differences estimation of the effect on surgical-site-infection.

BACKGROUND: Cesarean section (CS) is one of the most common surgical procedures performed worldwide. Surgical-site-infection (SSI) occurs in approximately 5-10% of CS. The benefit of prophylactic antibiotics for prevention of SSI has been demonstrated in the literature. The optimal timing of antibiotic prophylaxis (prior to surgical incision versus after cord clamping) was investigated in recent studies. In January 2014, the Israeli Ministry of Health introduced a national quality measure which monitors the administration of prophylactic antibiotics in CS. The custom clinical practice in our medical center was to administer prophylactic antibiotics immediately after cord clamping. Upon introduction of the national quality measurement program, the practice was changed to administration of antibiotics prior to surgical incision. Our objective was to examine the effect of timing of prophylactic antibiotics administration on the incidence of SSI following CS, in a single medical center that performs a large volume of deliveries, with a low rate of CS. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Taking advantage of a discrete change in clinical practice, we used retrospective data and applied difference-in-differences design to estimate the effect of the timing of prophylactic antibiotics administration on SSI rates. The analysis included all CSs performed during 2012-2015 and all hysterectomies conducted during the study period. RESULTS: The coverage rates of prophylactic antibiotics in CS before and after the policy change were 99.10% and 99.03%, respectively. The rates of SSI following CS, before and after the policy change, were 2.63% (n = 2499) and 2.32% (n = 3840), respectively. The rates of SSI following hysterectomy, before and after the policy, change were 6.82% (n = 396) and 7.09% (n = 437), respectively. Difference-in-differences (DID) estimates of the effect of policy change on the incidence of SSI in linear and logistic regression models were not significant (B = -0.6%, p = .64; odds ratio = 0.84, p = .58, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We found no effect of the timing of prophylactic antibiotic administration (prior to surgical incision versus after cord clamping) on SSI rates following CS.

The risk of tuberculosis in cancer patients is greatest in lymphoma and myelodysplastic syndrome/myeloproliferative neoplasm: a large population-based cohort study.

Patients with cancer are at high risk for tuberculosis (TB). This study combined the Israeli databases of cancer and TB and examined the development of TB among all newly diagnosed cancer cases from 1993 to 2013. Patients were classified into groups according to their different malignancies. Among 495,335 cancer patients, 335 developed TB following cancer diagnosis. The cumulative incidence of TB following cancer diagnosis was highest among MDS/MPN (148.8/100,000 patients) and lymphoma (154.1/100,000 patients) (p = .023). The HR of TB following cancer among hematologic patients was 2.51 (p < .001), relative to patients with in situ carcinomas/skin cancer and highest among MDS/MPN and lymphoma patients (2.74, p = .012 and 2.70, p < .001, respectively). Among lymphoma patients, a significant increased HR was found only among NHL patients (2.72, p < .001). The limitations include lack of information regarding risk factors for TB and of anti-cancer treatments. In conclusion, these data may encourage a heightened awareness for TB among patients with a background of lymphoma and MDS/MPN.

Models for projecting supply and demand for nurses in Israel.

BACKGROUND: Concern is growing over serious shortages in the nursing workforce and imbalance between supply and demand. Projections indicate that the demand for the nursing workforce will increase due to the aging population and an increase of the percentage of elderly people requiring assistance. STUDY GOALS: To examine the expected balance between supply and several demand projections for nurses in Israel in order to contribute to planning the nursing workforce. METHODS: 1. Open interviews with key figures in the healthcare and nursing care systems; 2. Examination of supply and demand for nurses; 3. Examination of the balance between supply and demand projections. MAIN FINDINGS: A considerable gap was found between the supply and demand projections for registered nurses, which will increase over time according to each of the demand projection models up to 2030. All of the models indicate that the projected shortage will be significantly affected by the age at which the nurses retire. Models based on a fixed ratio of nurses or infrastructure (beds, positions) per population show a particularly great gap between demand and supply. However, a more conservative model (based on hospital utilization), that takes the system's infrastructures and limitations, as well as the growing population and changes in its composition into account, without an increase in the direct ratio of the number of nurses, also predict a significant shortage of nurses within 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: The gaps between the demand and supply projections indicate the need to augment the workforce in addition to the steps currently taken to recruit nursing staff and increase the number of training institutions for nurses. The relatively simple supply prediction models, which are based on available sources of information that can be easily revised, will make it possible to monitor and update projections regularly over time. The models developed in this study should help the process of long-term strategic planning for the number of nurses in Israel.